标签: 新冠

  • 对于张文宏医生的一些看法

    对于张文宏医生的一些看法

    “我们本来可以战斗到底的,但这可能导致地球发动机失控,这种情况一旦发生,过量聚变的物质将烧穿地球,或蒸发全部海洋,所以我们决定投降。我们理解所有的人,因为已经进行了四十代人、还要延续一百代人的艰难奋斗中,永远保持理智确实是一个奢求。但也请所有的人记住我们,站在这里的这五千多人,这里有联合政府的最高执政官,也有普通的列兵,是我们把信念坚持到了最后。我们都知道自己看不到真理被证实的那一天,但如果人类得以延续万代,以后所有的人将在我们的墓前洒下自己的眼泪,这颗叫地球的行星,就是我们永恒的纪念碑!”

    控制中心巨大的密封门隆隆开启,那五千多名最后的地球派一群群走了出来,在叛军的押送下向海岸走去。一路上两边挤满了人,所有人都冲他们吐唾沫,用冰块和石块砸他们。他们中有人密封服的面罩被砸裂了,外面零下一百多度的严寒使那些人的脸麻木了,但他们仍努力地走下去。我看到一个小女孩,举起一大块冰用尽全身力气狠命地向一个老者砸去, 她那双眼睛透过面罩射出疯狂的怒火。 ——《流浪地球》

    4ec03f1cec0fa1bd15ad5bdfafba379

    之前一直觉得刘慈欣脑洞大,故事写的精彩,但三年来发生的这么多事,特别是最近放开疫情管控后,愈发觉得没人比大刘更懂人性。

    最近知乎上有关张文宏的话题吵得很凶,有人在反对他,出各种各样的合订本,也有人继续支持他。

    在我的印象里,一直比较抵触张文宏医生,从他说“最后一个寒冬”开始,我就觉得似乎不是很靠谱。

    最后一个寒冬

    回顾2021年,印度疫情导致医用氧气供应不足、露天焚烧尸体等等,无不在向我们说明COVID-19的恐怖威力。

    2021年印度-露天焚烧尸体(网图)

    而转眼到了2022年4月初,在上海封控初期,张文宏多次作出错误预判,甚至抛出了“上海疫情拐点”论。

    文宏拐点

    我曾在2022年12月12日对比过上海与台湾在2022年的疫情数据,在两地基础情况相近甚至台湾占优的情况下,同样都是威力低于Delta的Omicron毒株,台湾死亡人数高出上海十几倍,甚至各年龄段均有死亡病例出现。

    论文截图

    张文宏团队曾发表过一篇论文,其中提出Omicron感染者中有症状的患者极少。

    采访截图

    在一个采访中,张文宏医生声称“没有重症、没有1例需要住院”,跟流感没有区别。

    中日友好医院2016-2018流感季共纳入574名符合条件的患者,其中甲型流感病例369例(64.3%),乙型流感病例205例(35.7%)。总体住院病死率为9.8%。113例(19.7%)入住ICU。住院时间中位数为13天(IQR 8-17天)

    这是一个来自应用7分等级量表比较甲流和乙流住院患者的病情严重程度 (chinapneumonia.cn)的数据,其中显示中日友好医院2016-2018流感季共纳入574名符合条件的患者,其中甲型流感病例369例(64.3%),乙型流感病例205例(35.7%)。总体住院病死率为9.8%。113例(19.7%)入住ICU。住院时间中位数为13天(IQR 8-17天)

    于此同时,甲流的死亡率是0.02%,R0仅为1.5 。

    即便不考虑当前医疗、殡葬挤兑情况,单纯以他采访中的发言内容来讲,依然是在混淆事实、偷换概念。

    我并不认为张文宏医生对国家疫情防控政策有着直接影响,但在媒体的极力推动下,张文宏医生的言论仿佛就是面对COVID-19的圣经。

    我坚持认为,有很多人正是因为盲信了张文宏医生的言论,而错误的认为COVID-19不如流感甚至不如感冒,认为自己身体素质好挺一挺就能过去,因此并没有提前准备任何药品。(流感和感冒是两种不同疾病,前者的严重程度远高于后者,但受中文语境以及大多数人的科学素养影响,很多人认为流感和感冒是同等的。)

    2022年4月上海方舱出院小结

    我坚持认为,张文宏医生身为一名面向公众发言的医学专家,有义务也有责任为公众健康负责,同时,其本人及其团队,应秉持审慎的科学精神,为其科研成果负责。

    当然,我人微言轻,这个网站也几乎没有别人来访问,所以我的意见无法去扭转什么,也无法改变谁的想法,但我会坚持我的意见。

    张文宏医生及其团队应该向公众作出道歉。

  • 2022年12月3日全球新冠累计确诊+死亡数据

    2022年12月3日全球新冠累计确诊+死亡数据

    image-20221203164441404
    #Country, OtherTotal CasesNew CasesTotal DeathsNew DeathsTotal RecoveredNew RecoveredActive CasesSerious, CriticalTot Cases/ 1M popDeaths/ 1M popTotal TestsTests/ 1M popPopulation
    1USA10075505542012110645822998,191,251+64,4091,457,3463451300936330511413442893408979334805269
    2India44673984125530624244,137,617+3685,743698317603779067253596446071406631776
    3France37916052692531590267636,935,491+26,262821,5358695781252425271490188413954765584518
    4Germany365300203042015810916635,821,900+37,600550,01114064354851885122332384145835983883596
    5Brazil353364823176768999814534,257,388+21,521389,0968318164086320463776166296146215353593
    6S. Korea2715581357079305686226,163,723+48,413961,5224305290455961580406530789251329899
    7Japan249113671182014982618220,713,863+14,3264,147,67833919836339781441509648498125584838
    8Italy244880803659718173310323,799,178+32,152507,1693204063553016258382332428759560262770
    9UK2402474621621972536123,741,755+3,66885,7381463507372880522526476762835768497907
    10Russia2159761367853920605821,003,575+5,865201,978230014812626892734000001875095145805947
    11Turkey1700553710140016,904,13701987511185162743369190205285561976
    12Spain1361205227581160813013,400,795+2,52495,17633929135924854710363281008229846719142
    13Vietnam1151648958143176110,608,577+89864,736451163834368582654886734298953541
    14Australia1072523914741161871610,546,102162,9508741142162178835048302411626068792
    15Argentina97272471300259,590,2077,01524121141528263571606977626446010234
    16Netherlands85438389592291638,492,785+1,10128,13734496404133125984435150971817211447
    17Taiwan83290001564314387537,982,140+20,253332,47334866060228559590119553223888595
    18Iran75597373114463417,335,207+2979,896758788116815442078563263286022837
    19Mexico71327923305256,400,759401,508479854216251218757827142577131562772
    20Indonesia66698214977159884546,452,237+6,49957,700277123895573112623786403475279134505
    21Poland635330855311832895,335,940899,0401530168345313537802613100166537739785
    22Colombia63180213252141911166,142,640+1,80633,47034212265027553690762571647551512762
    23Austria556694750922121615,498,911+2,93146,820476139992340202723557223591099066710
    24Portugal554629028025517115,498,035+95222,73861546941251645641725450090310140570
    25Greece5404690343095,310,892+7,71859,4891155238813326100284496972065810316637
    26Ukraine53412841105865,212,759+1,04517,93912366325603260380575485543192122
    27Malaysia4994543237536695114,933,381+2,85724,46791150524110666463788200306333181072
    28Chile4925051504162484624,851,651+3,88310,916131255844324647090137244621619250195
    29DPRK4772813744,772,7390183636325990679
    30Israel472360711881186524,698,956+93212,7862250649912724137336444363469326000
    31Thailand4707244331804,649,50924,5551496671714731727077524645070078203
    32Belgium463941110243306114,582,082+72524,26837397609283336130437309646711668278
    33Czechia45592129964189474,507,663+2299,65548424635390256621436527359410736784
    34Canada4408276477814,300,534+2,29159,96199114833124566343123172820738388419
    35Switzerland4317035143184,217,67585,0425349204616322293298926138528773637
    36Peru426625113868217428143,966,797+3,34982,02694126654645536513459108399333684208
    37South Africa4042208318102464363,912,50627,2381926653216862647304943572660756135
    38Philippines4037433112464658173,954,477+88418,2981623588557533690102299444112508994
    39Romania3296834672763,225,200+4904,35894173232353525759760135354519031335
    40Denmark3148210610753753,135,439+2985,23495395441292128821813220776215834950
    41Sweden2632091210952,593,838+1,07217,15819257569206419155093187446410218971
    42Iraq2463724253642,437,1491,21121584316021944829246124342164965
    43Serbia24240486631739252,395,755+38710,9011428013920101163643513447848653016
    44Singapore2169201130417032,093,063+89774,43573649672872462251041427315943546
    45Hungary2166352482872,104,35813,707722551550271139455611861609606259
    46Hong Kong21283821013710762151,880,884+5,387236,7361827989214157060209792844987604299
    47Bangladesh203659712294331,985,899+6921,2651331121311751508784989870167885689
    48New Zealand194511732971,915,87125,949397108673754406315401704898203
    49Slovakia18560831302073411,834,065+1211,284233399303797735523913470665460193
    50Georgia1805698168811,776,54812,26945498042531692007942633403968738
    51Jordan1746997141221,731,0071,86859169597137117201885166994510300869
    52Ireland168054881591,665,531+596,8581133475716251283650625569725020199
    53Pakistan1575226403063211,538,6895,90529686413330570862133213229488994
    54Norway146923317243251,462,530+1302,378202665827851100243019963155511370
    55Finland140525574481,361,449+1,15436,3582125297313411182532221287865554960
    56Kazakhstan1396922167136931,382,292+1,93693724727377131157501260270719205043
    57Bulgaria12874091533804451,244,867+1364,4984318809155581082376515813596844597
    58Lithuania127662651394341,261,845+2635,347547962735441026071038549352661708
    59Morocco1269002179162841,251,428+1721,290293335964311275892033778137772756
    60Slovenia12600711612693631,238,696+89914,439196063773338278591913406512078034
    61Croatia125408332217330141,234,598+1982,155113089424269536486813216284059286
    62Lebanon122060242107371,087,587122,27874182592160647955787173806684849
    63Guatemala11575431075199521,132,426+1,0765,1655622871074632712734046018584039
    64Tunisia114707229268N/AN/AN/A44952192430497582641304612046656
    65Costa Rica11461359038860,711276,38652221161174446597578991585182354
    66Cuba1111398685301,102,783+10859830575414233813125900011305652
    67Bolivia11113572712224811,077,956+8711,153220926701855270542222559011992656
    68UAE104446812523481,024,155+21917,9651036002331972528351956526910081785
    69Ecuador101113235940973,4481,744759558221984308240317017318113361
    70Panama10021618526985,8817,754162253581917725624416317304446964
    71Nepal1000894512019988,719+2415633114398597830419779030225582
    72Belarus9940377118985,5921,3271053817551364664114467229432800
    73Uruguay9938757537985,3121,026182842882156611482217490833496016
    74Mongolia9930372702179986,700+5764,158192293965645403004811930003378078
    75Latvia9616276086950,3195,22235201253292774637241898621848837
    76Saudi Arabia8256404394651813,180+482,995472303426444817844125032735844909
    77Azerbaijan8243854899811814,148+4525680036969737728271622710300205
    78Paraguay77690419621N/AN/AN/A7106340268626575063637517305843
    79Bahrain6964511191536693,962+18995323903918611057492059277021783983
    80Sri Lanka6716875168052654,803+37931131779648611730061921575842
    81Kuwait6626722570659,992110151284587844145119271284380326
    82Dominican Republic6503814384644,0661,931458824397373814433809911056370
    83Myanmar6332611619488607,777+175,99611466353967420917517155227143
    84Palestine6208165404614,96245017116137101130785335759075345541
    85Cyprus6142371226601,43611,575605020791002964011878798601223387
    86Estonia6092332790524,99081,45334608732111360687827285351321910
    87Moldova59507311918504,14279,01349148280297032163058014374013171
    88Venezuela547631645828540,742+671,0613618712199335901411477129266991
    89Egypt51564524613442,18248,8501224857232369336734792106156692
    90Libya5070846437500,604437202191424833183527077040745
    91Ethiopia494645677572472,452+914,6211409463536542644411120812698
    92Qatar478848685476,6201,543160692230406536913642572979915
    93Réunion47730512179031418,57257,8301052563199416036601766027908061
    94Honduras458569546110518N/AN/AN/A105448641081156626815323610221247
    95Armenia4457378710434,8662,1611499812931323517510885642971966
    96Bosnia and Herzegovina4005641616202378,402+75,960123276498618795445784433249317
    97Oman3990274260384,66910,0982749498002500000046957245323993
    98North Macedonia3447109568334,3358071656224597214103210286972081304
    99Kenya341696605684335,359+136531607810139427447013756215221
    100Zambia3337464019329,6903717141206376514719338019470234
    101Albania333360173593328,211+61,556116300125419410326771732866374
    102Botswana3266332790323,747961133802114320268988303002441162
    103China32368641505233281,106+2,41937,3479922341600000001104611448471400
    104Luxembourg2977571133288,9917,633463528176444125676869188642371
    105Montenegro283750312790280,725+202356451867444326647154243515627950
    106Algeria27109666881182,567+381,6485978152230861509145350148
    107Nigeria2662833155259,6403,48811122915544116225104216746934
    108Zimbabwe2578935606251,9043831216821366252575616474415331428
    109Uzbekistan2466741541637241,4863,5512371744813779154007734382084
    110Brunei241044225222,14018,6795411485057177841611437445431
    111Mozambique2306242226228,310881169706713711274143733089461
    112Martinique2244681071N/AN/AN/A860004228638289282215870374087
    113Laos21674451758N/AN/AN/A2897310112332071648457481023
    114Iceland207171219N/AN/AN/A259981263419963845780036345393
    115Kyrgyzstan2065302991196,4067,1331313069644519071952834606728271
    116Afghanistan20611211578341183,822+35314,4561124505719211589832843840754388
    117El Salvador2017854230179,41018,14583080564626101143984676550389
    118Guadeloupe197918995N/AN/AN/A1949505024899380392346306399794
    119Maldives185618311163,68721,6202534311157522138314092223540985
    120Trinidad and Tobago1853774267180,912198813179230348686966175921406585
    121Ghana1710091461169,52721252794525217497784332395450
    122Namibia1699464080165,8264064523154910626634034602633874
    123Uganda1697333630100,43165,672335057530124086219848432863
    124Jamaica151931332099,39249,21950897111211839863966332985094
    125Cambodia13810673056134,992+7588044178309142018006217168639
    126Rwanda1326431467131,112649753108588247943252013600464
    127Cameroon1239931965118,6163,4121344427017517746276227911548
    128Malta11583921809114,444+115864260879182220907584708564444033
    129Angola1046761924102,36738529885514997954281835027343
    130Barbados103955564102,43595636092619587776692700024288023
    131French Guiana9638993841111,25484,724230680613086512572072951314169
    132Channel Islands9602830220795,304+240517544182117312528087099551176463
    133DRC94204145583,6109,13998915846704889095240792
    134Senegal88873196886,87233503411111465436494617653671
    135Malawi88086268585,0093926743651336247843095920180839
    136Ivory Coast87887283087,049+4831683016544295963627742298
    137Suriname815811393N/AN/AN/A1366902334239603401459596831
    138French Polynesia77137152649N/AN/AN/A72714522284284164
    139New Caledonia7605131474,6031,1349261420107998964340182290915
    140Eswatini73770142272,2559362263120010478868844291184817
    141Guyana716277128570,221+3121902051618706316889516794045
    142Belize6904868868,32535616751516695760161397453412190
    143Fiji6837587866,4401,05775181965666164732478909466
    144Madagascar67259141265,4503972305485181111775729178077
    145Sudan63637499058,01663113841085629411224045992020
    146Mauritania6342099762,42031293820310082832056894901981
    147Cabo Verde630511441262,473+1316623111068726401622707482567678
    148Bhutan625032161,564918793242723037342923739787941
    149Syria574001316354,230+172964163146269755319364809
    150Burundi506393850,418183401133457422738612624840
    151Seychelles5006817149,606291503570172099426
    152Gabon4897330648,582852100513116209766952402331533
    153Andorra4721915746,731331146095682027249838322525677463
    154Papua New Guinea461823666843,9821,5327497072249149268139292169
    155Curaçao4598629544,720971327781217824966933000640165529
    156Aruba4364123642,438967240555221931778851653068107609
    157Mayotte4120630187N/AN/AN/A143947653176919618038286259
    158Mauritius41042103239,278732321978103586752813741274727
    159Tanzania40656845N/AN/AN/A76421363298550
    160Togo39330229039,035+25453133801709923548680837
    161Guinea3815346437,21847182752336601074760713865691
    162Isle of Man38008116N/AN/AN/A4433351353150753175842285732
    163Bahamas3748383336,3602901935872080257839643767400516
    164Faeroe Islands3465828N/AN/AN/A57039595697780001580240949233
    165Lesotho3449070625,9807,804158523244312211981992175699
    166Haiti338621686032,897+261052899741324221133711680283
    167Mali3276074231,941771526357779363622721473764
    168Cayman Islands31359368,55322,7701466118535222773331128067277
    169Saint Lucia2955040429,0955115963221822109831139752185113
    170Benin2798016327,7467152189136043104726812784726
    171Somalia27254136113,18212,7111618814004662377816841795
    172Congo2537538624,006983437767347815599915797805
    173Solomon Islands24575153N/AN/AN/A134077212721159
    174Timor-Leste233541113823,102114170541012785292033911369429
    175Micronesia2220355N/AN/AN/A118897946821923186596117489
    176San Marino2216711921,82622246503453491157634462473234085
    177Burkina Faso2163138721,143101979182489951126522102838
    178Liechtenstein20947148720,793+96715456802266112457292955938387
    179Gibraltar2018411016,5793,49559886132645342831585221333704
    180Grenada1961323719,35818417284020891829811612523113475
    181Nicaragua184912254,22514,0412728336779100
    182Bermuda1846315118,28923298084243810185781644485761939
    183South Sudan1835013818,1159711579124102803531311618511
    184Tajikistan1778612517,2643971786139957464
    185Equatorial Guinea1718318316,8791215114811223656972443421496662
    186Tonga161821215,6385321501821115350094965327107749
    187Samoa15967291,60514,333478951143187397926612202239
    188Dominica157607415,673132178481023229344317018772344
    189Djibouti1569018915,42774154411863059413010941016097
    190Marshall Islands155411715,3901342225877128360057
    191Monaco15472306315,268+211414388910158478646197687539783
    192CAR1531111314,615583230522381294162055016678
    193Gambia1258637212,189254919145155686608512558482
    194Saint Martin12058631,39910,59673034991586112382282864339730
    195Greenland11971212,7619,1894210117369164926289481056973
    196Vanuatu119521411,937137137442497677606321832
    197Yemen1194521599,12466223383693295921057931154867
    198Caribbean Netherlands114263610,476914428791135130126113055926647
    199Sint Maarten109318910,8339248624202462056141145443966
    200Eritrea1018910310,08602782282369364703662244
    201Niger99313128,890729138112254538975926083660
    202Antigua and Barbuda91061468,954619150914671890118994399509
    203Comoros89651618,786189880177907419
    204Guinea-Bissau88481768,642306428885145231703852063367
    205Liberia80222947,715132151255139824263565305117
    206Sierra Leone7759126N/AN/AN/A93415259958312968306436
    207Chad76461944,8742,578439111913411098817413580
    208British Virgin Islands730564N/AN/AN/A2387572092107339350826930596
    209St. Vincent Grenadines71121156,641356637561031100856904125111551
    210Saint Kitts and Nevis6552466,48224121624854124861231777853871
    211Turks and Caicos6446366,3921841622009065502411384567639741
    212Cook Islands638916,38443636105719690112059617571
    213Sao Tome and Principe6278776,20102757433829036127530227679
    214Palau578575,622156131728238467025367602718233
    215St. Barth53486N/AN/AN/A5377586037864679080959945
    216Nauru462114,609114238289220509188104210903
    217Anguilla3904123,87913425633678851382337373615230
    218Kiribati3430132,703714327792105123419
    219Saint Pierre Miquelon32823412,44983215698911742524243830535759
    220Tuvalu28052,80523247112066
    221Falkland Islands19301,9300545352863224391073539
    222Saint Helena180621,8042953396115
    223Montserrat140381,3761928257816111776235774424965
    224Macao80896791+11112119785011760667490
    225Wallis and Futuna76174383166929563720508186741910982
    226Diamond Princess712136990
    227Niue14711106+341906291622
    228Vatican City2929036295799
    229Western Sahara10190162626161
    230MS Zaandam9270
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